France want to break the game open early. Morocco have spent four years learning how to make favourites wait.
France have scored 14 goals from 10.12 expected. They take 15.6 shots a game and touch the ball in your box almost 23 times every 90 minutes. That is what a Mbappe-Dembele–Olise front line does (+ the deep bench): it lives in the part of the pitch where one lapse ends the argument.
Here is what that looks like. Mbappe takes one touch out of feet and the back line is suddenly ten yards deeper, guessing. Dembele shows a fullback the touchline and is gone down the outside before the cover arrives. Olise waits, shifts it onto his left and finds the far corner nobody closed. One acceleration, one loose touch, one broken line, and it's gone.
The case for France is real, and it runs deeper than star quality: those stars live in your final third. When France pin you in, the pressure doesn't come in waves. It stays.
But Morocco stopped being the underdog a while ago. France beat them 2-0 in the 2022 semi-final. Since then they have drawn 1-1 with Brazil, beaten the Netherlands, and knocked Canada out 3-0 - Ounahi twice - to become the first African side to reach back-to-back World Cup quarter-finals. They arrive as contenders, not guests.
One number should worry France, though. They have conceded just two goals all tournament, but their expected goals against - 4.63 - says that run leans on sharp goalkeeping and good luck more than a wall. Morocco, for all the talk about their attack, have conceded fewer expected goals than France this tournament - 2.91 to 4.63 - even if the two schedules aren't identical. France's defence hasn't been tested by a side this composed yet.
The Paraguay game hinted at the problem. France won 1-0 on a Mbappe penalty, but the night was physical, tight and short on the open-field glamour they prefer. Against a disciplined block, France's fast, vertical game has less to bite on.
So here's the real question. Not whether France are better - they are - but whether they can unpick a patient, compact block with no space to run into. It's the game this France side handles worst, and exactly the one Morocco force on you.
One subplot hangs over it: Facundo Tello leads an all-Argentine crew, and he refereed Morocco's 2022 quarter-final win over Portugal. Deschamps waved away the fuss, saying France's opponent is Morocco, not the referee. Leave it there.
Watch the first 20 minutes, not the possession share. If France are shooting early and camping around Morocco's box, this ends quickly. If Morocco are breaking the first press cleanly and forcing France to build slowly through the middle, France have the night they didn't want.
France are the better team. Higher ceiling, deeper squad, the more dangerous attack. But their record flatters them, and Morocco are the opponent most likely to make them earn every yard of it. France should go through. They won't enjoy the route.