Something broke in year two.
The flagship analysis. Liverpool's Slot Y2 regression examined across xG, shot volume, shot quality, set-piece output, and pressing intensity - using two independent datasets.
The numbers behind Liverpool's decline
xG/match fell 29% from Klopp (2.49 → 1.77). Both shot volume and shot quality declined simultaneously. The evidence points upstream of the finishing.
The investigation, piece by piece.
Spain won the World Cup. Argentina lost the final - and then lost control
Twenty-five fouls. Two shots. None on target. The former champions' defence of their crown ended with one dismissal during the match and another after it....
The numbers say Argentina. The route says England.
At 39, Lionel Messi has never once faced England. Not at a World Cup, not in a friendly, not anywhere in a senior shirt. Two...
Four semifinalists, no simple fatigue answer - stage to watch the benches get involved
Each semifinalist brings a different mix of repeated selection, running, extra time, schedule and geography. None of it proves fatigue - but it sharpens what...
France vs Spain: the deepest attack against the best midfield
Spain have the stronger control game. France have been the more clinical side and possess one of the tournament's deepest attacking benches. The margin is...
France have the forward line - Morocco are the test
France want to break the game open early. Morocco have spent four years learning how to make favourites wait.
Brazil have more ways to win. Norway have Haaland.
This is not just Brazil nostalgia, though the mood around them has changed. The current conversation has moved from crisis to Ancelotti's calm, from Neymar...
Paraguay vs France: This Is Not Germany
Germany threw 55 crosses at Paraguay and completed 10. Then they went home.
Portugal vs Croatia is sold as Ronaldo vs Modrić. The real test is control.
Portugal have looked more convincing when Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva dictate the rhythm around Cristiano Ronaldo. Croatia's route to an upset is to...
Spain vs Austria Preview: Austria Do Not Need to Outplay Spain to Make Them Panic
Match facts: Round of 32 - Thursday, July 2, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California. Kickoff 12:00 PT / 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. UK. Referee:...
France vs Sweden Preview: France's Control Test Against Sweden's Direct Threat
France can control this game and still give Sweden exactly what they want.
Morocco vs Netherlands Preview: Dutch Efficiency Meets Morocco's Box Defence
This is the Round of 32 tie that feels too early: two seven-point teams, both top-10 in @FIFAcom's rankings, and both carrying a credible case...
Tuchel’s Trent Call Looks More About Control Than Quality
Trent Alexander-Arnold being left out of England’s World Cup squad is easy to frame as a question about defending. But Thomas Tuchel may simply feel...
Liverpool's xG decline isn't bad luck
Liverpool fans felt the attack had become slower and less threatening. The data points to the same place: xG fell 29%, shot volume declined, shot...
Xabi Alonso was the bigger swing, not the easier fit
Alonso was not a bad fit for Liverpool. He was the bigger tactical swing: elite, flexible, and high-upside, but less obviously low-disruption than the romance...
What the data established.
Confirmatory findings (Klopp vs Slot Y2): Mann-Whitney U with Bonferroni correction across 44 metrics. Full statistical framework at methodology →
Analysis by Gaurav Ahlawat, data analyst. Independent project, no affiliation with Liverpool FC. Analysis code on GitHub.