Liverpool FC · Three Seasons

Liverpool FC
Three seasons of data.

Klopp's final year. Slot's first two. What changed, what declined, and what the numbers say.

An independent statistical analysis using SportsMonks match statistics and Understat per-shot xG across 114 fixtures.

Featured analysis

Something broke in year two.

The flagship analysis. Liverpool's Slot Y2 regression examined across xG, shot volume, shot quality, set-piece output, and pressing intensity - using two independent datasets.

Slot Y2 2025–26 · Season complete · 38 matches

The numbers behind Liverpool's decline

xG/match fell 29% from Klopp (2.49 → 1.77). Both shot volume and shot quality declined simultaneously. The evidence points upstream of the finishing.

1.77 xG/match 1.58 PPG −50% set-piece xG
Read the analysis →
Published threads

The investigation, piece by piece.

01

Liverpool's xG decline isn't bad luck

Liverpool's attacking xG fell from 2.49 (Klopp) to 1.77 (Slot Y2) - a 29% drop across the full 38-match season. Shot volume declined, shot quality...

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Key findings

What the data established.

Attacking xG fell 29%
2.49 (Klopp) → 2.45 (Y1) → 1.77 (Y2) per match. Observed across 38 matches (full season) via Understat.
Set-piece xG halved
0.679 → 0.487 → 0.339 per match (first 30 Y2 matches, Understat shot-level data). The decline began in Y1 while Trent Alexander-Arnold was still at the club and continued after his departure.
Tackling and pressing intensity declined
Tackles/match: 17.8 → 13.0 (−27.0%). Bonferroni-confirmed across 44 metrics.
Defence also declined
Opponent xG: 1.25 → 1.11 → 1.42 per match. Attack and defence regressed simultaneously.

Confirmatory findings (Klopp vs Slot Y2): Mann-Whitney U with Bonferroni correction across 44 metrics. Full statistical framework at methodology →

Analysis by Gaurav Ahlawat, data analyst. Independent project, no affiliation with Liverpool FC. Analysis code on GitHub.