Spain have the stronger control game. France have been the more clinical side and possess one of the tournament's deepest attacking benches. The margin is tiny, and it tilts to France.
The most revealing comparison is not shots or possession. It is what has happened after the shot arrives. Both teams have produced roughly 13 expected goals and averaged about 0.12 xG per shot. France have scored 16; Spain 11. France have not created cleaner chances in this tournament. They have finished more of them.
Six matches do not guarantee that finishing gap will survive one more night. France receive the narrow edge because, if their current decisiveness fades, Deschamps can still send on Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki and Marcus Thuram. That is less a bench than a second starting attack.
Spain lead several of the measures that describe control. They use progressive passes more often - 70 per 90 to France's 57 - concede less and recover possession faster than anyone in the tournament. Rodri decides how fast the match is allowed to go; Pedri finds the pass the cameras miss; De la Fuente can choose among Fabian Ruiz, Dani Olmo and Merino to reshape the midfield around them.
Morocco showed how little room France may need. They contained Deschamps' attack for an hour in the quarter-final, even after Bounou saved an Mbappe penalty. Mbappe scored anyway; Dembele added a second six minutes later. France did not need every attacker to dominate. They needed the next one to take over.
France defend now, too: three knockout matches, three clean sheets, with the front four doing their share of the work backwards. Manu Kone has been a revelation beside Adrien Rabiot, but current reporting expects Aurelien Tchouameni to reclaim his place. A straight swap preserves Desire Doue. An unlikely insurance policy would use all three midfielders to avoid losing the centre to Spain; that would probably cost Doue his place, making France safer but less lethal.
France's clearest vertical route is the pass in behind. They have scored five times from those open-play passes, and nobody has attempted more through-balls than Olise. Spain can control him for long stretches. They cannot allow him to turn once with Mbappe already moving.
Spain can pose the mirror problem: draw France towards Rodri and Pedri, find Olmo beyond them, then release Yamal or Williams at the back line. Yamal did not score or assist against Belgium and was named player of the match anyway. Spain have reached the semi-finals without their two most explosive wide players consistently finding top rhythm.
Then there is Merino, the substitute who keeps arriving exactly when Spain need him. His stoppage-time goal beat Portugal in the round of 16. Four days later, he entered against Belgium in the 86th minute, reacted first when Lammens spilled Cubarsi's shot and scored in the 88th. France carry the deeper attack; Spain carry the tournament's defining super-sub.
Recent history belongs to Spain. They won the Euro 2024 semi-final 2-1, then survived a 5-4 Nations League thriller in which Yamal scored twice. France scored four that night and still lost. Spain know they have broken through this opponent before. France know this version of their attack can keep a lost match alive.
One thing to watch when Spain's press is broken: France's first forward pass. If Olise can turn and lift his head, Mbappe will already be moving. Spain must decide whether to step towards the creator or protect the run. One clean pass may settle the match.
These are the sternest opponents either team has faced in this tournament. Spain have the better midfield, the stronger defensive numbers and the last two head-to-head victories. France have been more decisive in front of goal and have more ways to change a match from the bench. If that edge holds for one more game, it is enough to tilt the forecast narrowly towards France - and enough to make the winner the favourite in the final.
Match facts
- Stage: FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final
- Kick-off: Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM PST
- Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Recent meeting: Spain 5-4 France, UEFA Nations League semi-final, June 5, 2025