Each semifinalist brings a different mix of repeated selection, running, extra time, schedule and geography. None of it proves fatigue - but it sharpens what to watch in both semifinals.*
Fatigue is one of football's easiest alibis. Coaches blame the calendar; pundits count extra-time periods and declare a team tired before anyone has watched them move.
Some of the exposure is partly shaped by teams: selection, substitutions, the intensity of their football and whether they can avoid extra time. Some is largely shaped by the tournament: the time between games and the assigned venue sequence. Playing conditions sit between those categories - organisers choose where and when matches are played, not the weather itself.
The data can map those pressures, but it cannot measure sleep, soreness, injury or recovery. There is no clean fatigue ranking here - only a sharper idea of what to watch when each semifinal tightens.
France–Spain: the same five regulars, very different paths
Spain's assigned venue sequence produces an estimated 6,446-mile route through the semifinal. They have an estimated 94 hours from the end of their quarter-final to semifinal kickoff. France's sequence produces an estimated 2,397-mile route and 117 hours between those games - the shortest route and the most time of the four.
Both have leaned on an unchanged spine. Five Spain outfielders started all six matches: Laporte, Cucurella, Cubarsí, Rodri and Oyarzabal. France did the same with Dembélé, Mbappé, Koundé, Upamecano and Olise.
Spain's ten most-used eligible outfielders also logged the most high-speed distance of the four equivalent groups. That can reflect elite fitness rather than fatigue. It still adds another layer to Spain's profile alongside the longest estimated route.
France therefore have the cleaner schedule-and-route profile on paper - but more games in the summer heat. Watch which member of either ever-present five comes off first.
England–Argentina: England bring the running; Argentina the extra time
England arrive with more high-speed running and a longer estimated venue route than Argentina. Their ten most-used eligible outfielders covered about 807 metres more high-speed distance per player, while their assigned venue sequence produces a route 2,192 miles longer. Four England players started every match: Bellingham, Kane, Konsa and Elliot Anderson.
Argentina's exposure is narrower and more concentrated. Mac Allister, Messi, Lisandro Martínez and Julián Álvarez each played all 60 of Argentina's extra-time minutes. Argentina also have an estimated 88 hours from the end of their quarter-final to semifinal kickoff, the least time of the four semifinalists.
If this one runs past 90 again, the data cannot declare those four tired. The football question is how long they stay on the pitch.
Argentina's lower high-speed-running figure is not proof of fresher legs; roles, pace and game state all shape distance. Nor is there a stable order behind the analysis: Spain's score is higher than France's under all three tested assumptions, but England and Argentina change places.
That is the point of the exercise. The numbers cannot tell us who is tired. They can tell us where to look. Watch the first changes - but read them in context, because the scoreline, roles and tactics matter as much as accumulated exposure.
Methodology and sources used
We compared each team's ten most-used eligible outfield players across five areas: minutes and extra time, high-speed running, time between matches, estimated venue-to-venue distance and modeled playing conditions. The result is a fatigue-pressure profile, not a medical measure. It does not assess sleep, soreness, readiness or individual recovery, and the three tested assumptions did not produce a conclusive ranking.
Match-load and running data come from archived FIFA reports, cross-checked with Wyscout/Hudl where available. FIFA supplied schedules and venues; routes were calculated between stadiums; conditions were modeled from historical weather and documented roof status. Routes reflect assigned venues, not tracked team movement. Match-end times, routes and conditions are estimates.