At 39, Lionel Messi has never once faced England. Not at a World Cup, not in a friendly, not anywhere in a senior shirt. Two decades into the greatest career the game has produced, that line is still blank - and it gets filled on Wednesday, in a semi-final, with eight goals already to his name this tournament.
There is no underdog here. Argentina are world champions, unbeaten in six, carrying the best player alive. England are ranked fourth and have more quality than Thomas Tuchel can physically fit on one pitch.
They're equals in stature. They are not built the same way.
The number that matters
Start with the honest version of the stats, because it doesn't flatter my pick.
Run the shots out to xG per 90 and Argentina come out ahead - about 2.15 to England's 1.92. Their chances have been better (0.181 xG a shot to 0.155), and at the other end they've conceded barely half as much: 0.56 xG against per game to England's 1.02. On the raw numbers, Argentina are the cleaner team at both ends. Not marginally. Clearly.
So why am I backing England? Because of who those numbers came against.
The route
Argentina reached the last four without meeting a single top-10 side. Their toughest test was Switzerland, ranked 19th - AS made the point sharply. Cape Verde, Egypt, Switzerland; that's a genuine path to a semi-final, and the draw isn't Argentina's fault. But a 0.56 xGA doesn't mean much when nobody you've played could hurt you. It's a soft-schedule number wearing an elite disguise.
England are the first side on this road built to test it - size down the spine, power in midfield, a bench that changes games. Put bluntly: Argentina's route has been Europa League. Argentina, the team, are still Champions League royalty. Wednesday is where those two facts collide.
England's case
England's edge isn't a trick. It's weight.
They get into the box more - 22.3 penalty-area touches a game to 16.7 - and they're simply bigger everywhere it counts. Rice screens while Anderson and Bellingham jump onto Paredes; long diagonals send Saka and Gordon at Molina and Tagliafico; Kane pins the centre-backs and flicks runners in behind. If this turns into a repeating fight for territory and second balls, England have the platform to win it - and the depth to keep winning it past the hour, when legs start to go.
The team news helps, too: Rice and O'Reilly are fit. Quansah is suspended and Henderson's out with a broken wrist.
Argentina's answer
They won't let it become that fight. Their way in is tempo - press England's first pass, combine quickly through the middle, turn that back line toward its own goal before the game ever gets heavy. Score first and Scaloni gets to pick the speed from there.
And when a knockout turns against them, someone always steps up. La Nación called them a side that always finds a saviour, and two of their last three went to extra time - not proof they'll fade, but a lot of football in the legs. Mac Allister and Enzo can burst through the middle, De Paul drags it into a scrap, Álvarez pulls a centre-back away, and Messi arrives between the lines, where the models stop being any use.
Two moments to watch
The first 20 minutes - can Argentina set the tempo and make England defend facing their own goal?
The first wave of subs - can England turn fresh legs and width into constant box pressure, or do Scaloni's changes keep Messi close enough to settle it?
The call
Argentina control the quality of the chances, and Messi is good enough to make every model irrelevant. But England have fewer weak spots, more ways to hurt you, and the bigger platform to do it from - and that's the profile that tends to win tight, late knockout games.
England 2-1. I'll back them to finish it inside 90 - though I wouldn't bet the house against extra time.